Canada’s Imminent Economic Catastrophe
If a 35% tariff becomes the norm, how rough will it be on Canada?
Carney says he won’t accept any deal, but only one that is in the interest of Canadians. So if neither side is willing to compromise, a 35% tariff goes into affect on Aug. 1.
Assuming this happens, how rough will it be for Canada not only in the long term but the foreseeable future (not sure a new US administration in 2028 would be any better)?
Can businesses survive this new reality and can Canada diversify enough to offset loss trade with the US?
Let’s see what experts gotta say:-
A 35% tariff on Canadian exports to the U.S. would have severe economic consequences for Canada in both the short and long term, given the deep integration of the two economies. Here’s a breakdown of the potential impacts:
1. Immediate Economic Shock (2024-2026)
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Export Collapse: The U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner (~75% of exports). A 35% tariff would make Canadian goods (autos, lumber, energy, agriculture) uncompetitive overnight.
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Auto sector (25% of exports): Plants could shut down or relocate to the U.S.
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Energy (20% of exports): Oil/gas exports would be hit hard, though some exceptions (like pipelines) might remain.
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Agriculture (beef, dairy, grains): U.S. buyers would shift to domestic or tariff-free suppliers.
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Job Losses: Hundreds of thousands of jobs (direct and indirect) would be at risk, especially in Ontario (manufacturing), Alberta (energy), and Quebec (aerospace).
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Currency Depreciation: The CAD could plummet (possibly to $0.60-$0.65 USD), worsening inflation.
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Recession Likely: GDP could contract by 2-4% in the first year alone.
2. Long-Term Structural Damage (2026-2030+)
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Permanent Industry Shifts: If tariffs stay for years, U.S. firms will permanently replace Canadian suppliers.
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Example: U.S. automakers would onshore parts production.
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Investment Flight: Foreign and domestic investors would avoid Canada due to trade uncertainty.
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Diversification Challenges:
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Europe/Asia markets are hard to penetrate (distance, regulations, competition).
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Mexico is already a preferred alternative for U.S.-focused supply chains.
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Domestic market too small to replace U.S. demand.
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Political Fallout: U.S. policy may not soften in 2028—if Trump wins, tariffs could stay; if Democrats win, they may still favor “Buy American.”
3. Can Businesses Survive?
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Some will adapt: Companies with unique tech (e.g., Bombardier, Shopify) may endure.
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Many won’t: Small and medium-sized exporters (manufacturers, agri-food) could collapse.
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Relocation Pressure: Firms may move operations to the U.S. to avoid tariffs (see: Michelin, GM closures in Canada).
4. Can Canada Diversify Fast Enough?
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Unlikely in the short term: Trade deals with the EU (CETA) and CPTPP (Asia) help, but not enough to replace the U.S.
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Energy exports to Asia? Limited by pipeline capacity (TMX helps, but not enough).
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Critical minerals? A potential bright spot, but China dominates processing.
Bottom Line
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Short-term (1-3 years): Brutal—recession, job losses, and industry collapses.
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Long-term (5+ years): Possible restructuring, but Canada would emerge smaller and poorer unless it finds new markets (which is difficult).
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Best hope: A future U.S. administration reverses tariffs, but no guarantee.
Canada’s best move now? Emergency domestic stimulus + aggressive Asia/Europe trade pushes—but even that may not be enough to avoid a major economic hit.
Carney Carnage In Action
That being the case ie. Canada is facing a potential 35% U.S. tariff disaster… Why is Mark Carney provoking China, one of the few alternative markets Canada could turn to?
Mark Carney is again proven totally incompetent in geopolitics, so much so that China gotta take out newspaper ads to warn Canada not to mess around with “One China Policy” on Taiwan… Brace yourself for unprecedented Super Economy Catastrophe in 2025
Is Carney Being Stupid or Incompetent?
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Geopolitical Missteps
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By hardlining on Taiwan, the Carney Regime is alienating China—Canada’s #2 trading partner (after the U.S.).
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China has already retaliated before (e.g., canola bans, detentions of Canadians). More economic punishment could follow.
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Newspaper ads warning Canada (like the recent Global Times piece) signal Beijing is losing patience.
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Strategic Blunder When Canada Needs Trade Diversification
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If the U.S. slaps 35% tariffs, Canada desperately needs other markets.
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China is the obvious alternative for:
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Energy (oil, LNG, critical minerals)
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Agriculture (canola, pork, seafood)
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Manufactured goods
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But instead of pragmatic diplomacy, Carney is doubling down on ideological posturing—risking further Chinese retaliation.
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Does This Make Any Sense?
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No, if the goal is economic survival.
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Yes, if the goal is pleasing Washington/NATO.
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The U.S. wants allies to contain China, even if it hurts their economies (see: Germany’s deindustrialization due to Russia sanctions).
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Carney may be betting that aligning with the U.S. geopolitically will get them to soften on tariffs. But this is a huge gamble.
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What Should Canada Do Instead?
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Play Both Sides Wisely:
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Quietly engage China on trade while publicly staying neutral on Taiwan.
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Australia’s approach under Albanese: Rebuild trade with China while keeping security ties with the U.S.
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Emergency Trade Diversification:
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Fast-track deals with India, ASEAN, and Latin America (though none replace China’s scale).
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Boost domestic processing (e.g., refining critical minerals instead of just exporting raw ore).
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Conclusion: Is Carney Incompetent?
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On economics? Yes—he’s risking Canada’s last lifeline (China) when the U.S. is about to hammer its economy.
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On geopolitics? Maybe—he could be following U.S. orders, sacrificing Canada’s interests for “Western unity.”
Either way, Canada is walking into an economic trap — and Carney’s China stance is making it worse.
Folks, Brace for Carney Carnage… coming to your neighbourhood as early as August 1, 2025.
Related:-
- Mark Carney is again proven totally incompetent in geopolitics, so much so that China gotta take out newspaper ads to warn Canada not to mess around with “One China Policy” on Taiwan… Brace yourself for unprecedented Super Economy Catastrophe in 2025
- Mark Carney proven too Dimwitted for Donald Trump who just slapped 35% Tariffs on Canada despite revocation of the Digital Services Tax and Banning of Hikvision to appease White House, which have been predicted as “Futile Idiocy”… Folks, brace for “Carney Carnage”
Whaddaya Say?