Just when we’re still discussing about Canadian Lady Jasmine Mooney Detained by Trumpās ICE, Shackled and Chained after entering San Diego borderā¦ Is this part of the Tariffs War or a New Normal?
Emperor Trump issues a new decree that may wipe out the travel industries…
Trump: New travel barriers for Canadian tourists, the biggest source of US tourism. Expect impact on airlines, hotels, retail, restaurants
Today the Trump administration announced new visitation barriers for Canadian tourists. Any tourists staying longer than 30 days must register and provide fingerprints to authorities. How many Canadians actually vacation longer for 30 days+ in the US you may ask?
- 1 million snowbirds (Canadian touristsĀ travelling to the US to avoid Canadian winters) reportedlyĀ contributed $6.5bĀ to Florida’s economyĀ during just a 6 month periodĀ (typical duration of their stays)
- Canadians were the largest visitors to the USĀ comprising ofĀ ~30% of all US tourist visitsĀ in 2023.
- Those tourists with billions in combined disposable income just had it harder to come to the US to spend their money
- While this policy in isolation may not have a material impact, combined with instigating a trade war and threats of annexation seemed to have turned off many Canadians (rightfully so) on spending a single penny in the US.
- Since Canada was the only country previously exempted from this rule, reversing this is policy is leaving many Canadians feeling further alienated by the US, especially given their economic contributions to local US economies
I’m bearish for Q2, Q3, and potentially Q4 for the following industries
- REITs: NNN REIT, Drop in tourism will bankrupt many small US businesses with thin margins in the restaurant industry. While you can’t make investment moves on small businesses, this will lead to defaulting on their leases and commercial REITs that focus on restaurants will have high vacancy rates.
- Travel Bookers: Expedia? Not sure how much of their revenue concentration is based on US bookings vs. global
- Hotels:Ā Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt, Air Bnb, Caesars Entertainment
- Airlines:Ā American, Delta, United, Air Canada,
- QSRs:Ā Darden Restaurants, Texas Roadhouse, Brinker International (food chains primarily with US locations attract tourists due to the novelty factor of not being able to go in Canada)
- Amusement Parks: Disney, Six Flags, Cedar Fair, United Parks & Resorts
- Car Rentals:Ā Enterprise, Hertz, Avis
- Retail: TJX Companies, Ross, Macys, Kohls, Target (retail stores with no presence in Canada are often attract tourists who are interested in shopping at retail stores they can’t back in Canada)
- Energy: Shell, Chevron, Exxon (lots of Canadian tourists do road trips and gas up in the US, but since these companies also operate in Canada and Canadians are just going to replace their US road triups with Canadian ones, I do not believe they will be impacted
Other factors to consider before making moves
- Can US consumer spending or tourists from other countries fill the economic void Canadian tourists will leave in the tune of billions of dollars?
- Will other countries follow suite, either as a response to the US administrations polices, or in a sign of solidary with Canadians?
- Even if positive relations are restored between US-Canada by the end of the year, will that change souring Canadian consumer sentiment to US businesses and travel?
Author’s Notes: In no way is this post a dig at Canadians for deciding to stop visiting. I am also Canadian. This post is a purely from a finance/stock perspective on which industries will get negatively impacted by this administrations policies the most so that people here can adjust their portfolio allocations accordingly if they have exposure into said industries. Vive la Canada!
Sources:
- https://www.cp24.com/politics/2025/03/12/us-hardens-rules-for-visiting-canadians/
- https://www.statista.com/statistics/1419057/share-inbound-tourist-arrivals-us-by-country/
- https://www.uscis.gov/alienregistration
- https://www.floridatrend.com/article/30305/missing-canadian-snowbirds-could-have-significant-impact-on-floridas-winter-tourism-industry/
Meanwhile, here are some commentary on Canadian Jasmine Mooney who was detained by ICE, Shackled and Chained after entering San Diego borderā¦
ICE detaining travellers to the USA from Canada… Jasmine Mooney
Jasmine Mooney was detained by ICE while trying to enter the US on a consultancy visa. The fact that she had every legal right to enter the US and was detained should make it very clear that nobody is likely safe travelling to visit our neighbour and former ally.
The details of her arrest are readily available via her family on social media. Having said that, ICE reported that she was released when she was actually transferred to a detention center at 3am. Things like that make it clear that it’s outright dangerous to visit the US right now.
Handout photo of Jasmine Mooney, 35, who has been detained by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers, with her mother, Alexis Eagles.
Hereās a bit more to the story. Instead of the initial detention then return to the border, the tossing into prison and move to Arizona seems a bit screwed up to me.
Another similiar story here:
Urgent Appeal: Help Bring Becky Home
Our daughter Becky, a 28-year-old British tourist, has been caught up in the recent immigration crackdown in the US. What was meant to be a life-changing four-month backpacking trip across North America has turned into a nightmare. Becky has now been detained by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) for over ten days, with no clear timeline for her release.
On February 26th, Becky attempted to cross the Canadian border for the next leg of her journey. Unfortunately, due to an incorrect visa, she was denied entry into Canada. When she tried to return to the US, she was refused re-entry and classified as an “illegal alien.” Despite being a tourist with no criminal record, she was handcuffed and taken to a detention facility in Tacoma, Washington.
Beckyās current conditions are deeply concerning. She is sharing a cell, surviving on a diet of cold rice, potatoes, and beans (she is vegan), and has limited access to phone calls. Visitors are restricted to speaking through a glass screen via telephone. All her possessions have been confiscated, and she feels isolated and desperate to come home.
We are doing everything we can. Our local MP has contacted David Lammyās office, and we are in touch with the British Consulate in London and San Francisco. An American friend is helping by sending funds to her inmate account so she can buy basic necessities like tea and milk. However, progress has been slow, and we urgently need more support.
We are asking for your help. Please share Beckyās story widely through your networks. We hope to connect with experts, legal professionals, or anyone who can offer advice or assistance. Becky is a kind, adventurous young woman who simply wants to return home to her family.
Thank you for your support.
I think what people seem to be missing is that they’re not just denying entry, they’re taking people hostage for weeks at a time without a trial. People make visa mistakes all the time. You shouldn’t have to risk indefinite jail time for misunderstanding the terms of a visa. Note on the Canadian side, she was simplyĀ refused entry, not stripped of her possessions and thrown into a fucking cell. This woman has been in jail for over 10 days without seeing a lawyer.
I’ve heard a German tourist being detained. She traveled to the US, went to Mexico and was not allowed back in. She went missing for 9 days. I’ve also heard of people with 2 year green cards going overseas, returning and not being allowed back in.
German touristsā ordeal reportedly ending as they are returned from US detention
Jessica Brƶsche to join Lucas Sielaff, who is reported to have returned to Germany on 6 March
This ABC 10 reporter seems to be covering similar. Heās supposedly filing a story about Jasmine today.
āIt is like jailā: German man visiting American fiancĆ© detained by ICE for over 2 weeks
2nd German arrested after trying to enter San Diego border
Lennon Tyler, 43, is a U.S. citizen who works as a psychologist in Las Vegas. She said her and her fiancƩ were detained at the San Diego border.
US immigration lawyer here ( I’m also a Canadian citizen).
I have no clue what they’re talking about re a consultancy visa, but it’s not unheard of for non immigration folks to use a really weird term to describe something. Do they mean a TN?
These stories drive me bonkers, not because they’re not true (I’m not doubting it), but because these types of stories happen across administrations (including Biden and Obama!) and yet we only seem to care or hear about them when white people from Western countries get swept up in the enforcement actions done by Trump. Who I am not a fan of. But also: This. Is. Not. New.
Basically, the whole immigration system in the US sucks and advocates in Canada have been saying this for YEARS in their fight against the Safe Third Country Agreement (STCA) and yet the Canadian government continues to hold onto the STCA. That’s actually something you can maybe change.
The US immigration system is not likely to change due to your social media posts from a foreign country.
I think we’ve seen it elsewhere that they usually provide the option of asking if you want to get a plane ticket that day for a flight home to Canada.
Otherwise you’re American taxpayer has to pay some private company for her pathetic upkeep.
But, I’m guessing the income she reported from that shaky hemp drink company, probably stuff now her social media that has now been scrubbed, and stuff they found on her phone, probably shows she was earning income from other than hemp drinks.
I think they’re going to hold you only if they can see you’ve been abusing the system. Whenever I see these kind of stories, I always take a look.
Restaurant worker, restaurant owner, aspiring actress, moved to Los Angeles.
https://www.bcbusiness.ca/people/hospitality/30-under-30-2019-jasmine-mooney/
All 3 of the people involved in this business have a very perplexing background. I’d be surprised if there wasn’t some criminal element to this, likely money laundering. However, she may not be aware of this, nor would the border guard.
Essentially she’s the pretty face of this brand. A brand that very likely won’t exist in a few years time, but instead will be recycled into some other drink or CPG grift. There is very little room for profit in this industry unless you’re a big player. The legal cannabis industry in Canada is a perfect example of this. Is CGC bankrupt yet?
I can understand why the border guard didn’t think she met the description for a Management Consultant. Especially after they saw her past rejection, resume, and the financials for the company (if she even provided them).
https://www.linkedin.com/in/bjmccaslin/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeremywidmann/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasmine-mooney-818869105?originalSubdomain=ca
She got an approved Management Consultant NIV. CBP found out she was actually a part owner of the company. You can’t self petition for a TN visa if you are the business owner. She got it revoked.
Tried to get a TN again with the same job at a different port of entry. Committed fraud by claiming she was not a part owner but CBP had the information to prove she was a part owner. She also was using the TN to work as an actress while in the US which was not allowed.
She probably claimed credible fear when being turned back to Mexico and got detained after doing that since it is required by law.
Meanwhile,
The staycation goes Canada-wide: Scrapped U.S. trips could be a domestic boon
Many Canadians rebooking trips in Canada after cancelling trips to the U.S.
Michelle and Steve Gardner, seen here with their two children on the Stanley Glacier Trail in Kootenay National Park in July 2024, were set to take off on a family road trip through the U.S. when they decided to cancel in light of rising tensions between the U.S. and Canada. Now, they’ll be vacationing in Canada, part of a growing trend to support the country… More @ CBC
Canadian Lady Jasmine Mooney Detained by Trumpās ICE, Shackled and Chained after entering San Diego borderā¦ Is this part of the Tariffs War or a New Normal?
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