“We’ve already held for 6 months, we can hold for 6 more” – Imagined American Invasion of Canada, 2028?
No longer unthinkable: the U.S. invasion of Canada
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The most sobering thing I’ve read in the past couple of weeks comes from Timothy Snyder, the renowned historian of Ukraine. Snyder, who’s been studying modern-day authoritarianism for years, draws a strong parallel between how Vladimir Putin sees Ukraine and how Donald Trump views Canada.
Most jarringly, Snyder argues that Trump is preparing the ground not just for an economic assault on Canada, but for actual war. Trump has spread the ideas that Canada is not a real country, that it’s been “ripping off” the United States for decades, and (worst of all) killing Americans by allowing fentanyl to pour over the border.
“The imperialist rhetoric has to be seen for what it is,” writes Snyder, “which is preparation not just for trade war but for war itself.”
It’s amazing to be reading this from someone as eminent as Snyder (who will be teaching at the University of Toronto’s Munk School starting in September). It’s just as amazing to scratch a little deeper and realize that he’s far from alone in contemplating such a scenario.
In the past couple of weeks there’s been a slew of commentaries contemplating the possibility of American military force being used against Canada. A common thread is the comparison between Putin’s treatment of Ukraine and Trump’s view of Canada. Both see the adjoining territory as not quite legitimate, as part of their natural sphere of influence, as theirs for the taking. It’s a classic imperialist world-view.
So, in the Washington Post Ishaan Tharoor writes: “As Putin sees Ukraine, so Trump sees Canada.” The New York Times columnist David French says, “Canada is Donald Trump’s Ukraine.” Will Saletan makes the same point in The Bulwark.
To take it a step further, Noel Anderson of the University of Toronto writes in The Conversation that an American military invasion of Canada “is no longer unthinkable” (though also “highly unlikely”). Anderson notes that Trump’s trade adviser Peter Navarro has made the bizarre observation that Canada has been “taken over by Mexican cartels” – the kind of statement designed to persuade a certain type of American that this country is really an enemy behind the reassuring smiles.
Aisha Ahmad, also of the U of T, warns that an American invasion of Canada would “set in motion an unstoppable cycle of violence” that would eventually destroy both countries. And Richard Sandbrook, another U of T poli-sci prof, urges adding training in non-violent resistance and civil defence to Canada’s national security planning. Canada could not resist an American invasion with outright military force, he argues, but “Canadians can paralyze military might through civil, non-violent resistance.”
Finally, former State Department official Eliot Cohen writes in The Atlantic that invading Canada is simply not a good idea from an American POV. He reviews the checkered history of U.S. aggression against Canada and warns any American contemplating the idea that this country would be a tough nut to crack. “There is a martial spirit up north waiting to be reawakened,” he writes.
What to conclude, aside from the fact that academics and analysts enjoy playing with apocalyptic scenarios that, even given Trump’s aggressiveness and amorality, are still extremely unlikely?
To me, it drives home how completely Trump has shattered all assumptions of goodwill and fair-dealing underpinning Canada-U.S. relations. A smaller country living beside an enormous one cannot rely only on legal structures and treaty language. To have any real comfort it must assume a certain level of decency from the stronger party. That type of trust takes a very long time to establish, and Trump has annihilated it in a matter of weeks.
Canada, in its present form since Confederation, has lived alongside the United States for about 160 years. For the first half of that period, until the Second World War, its goal was to keep its distance from the U.S. as much as possible. For the second half, until late last year, it broadly took the opposite tack – trying to integrate as much as possible with the U.S. economically and militarily. Canada’s policy was to be America’s indispensable best friend and partner.
That’s clearly no longer possible. Even if a friendlier Democrat wins the presidency in 2028, Canada will no longer trust the Americans as it did for the past 80 or so years (certainly, it shouldn’t). I suspect the next long period will be all about taking our distance again. Once you’re actually contemplating the possibility of military invasion, that’s the only course possible.
“1st day of the 2nd U.S invasion of Canada”
From Eddie Hardie, Sociopolitical Activist
The idea of a U.S. invasion of Canada, while historically and theoretically possible, remains highly unlikely in the modern era due to the strong alliance, economic integration, and shared security interests between the two nations. However, if we were to entertain the scenario as a speculative exercise, several factors would come into play:
1. Historical Context
- The U.S. and Canada have had tense moments in the past, including during the American Revolution and the War of 1812, when U.S. forces attempted (and failed) to annex parts of Canada.
- Since then, relations have evolved into one of the closest bilateral partnerships in the world, underpinned by NATO, NORAD, and extensive trade ties (e.g., USMCA).
2. Why Would the U.S. Invade Canada? (Hypothetical Motivations)
- Resources: Canada has vast reserves of oil, fresh water, and minerals, which could theoretically be a target in a resource-scarce future.
- Strategic Geography: Control of Canadian territory could provide the U.S. with enhanced Arctic access or defensive depth.
- Political Instability: If Canada were to collapse into chaos or align with a U.S. adversary (an extreme scenario), the U.S. might intervene militarily.
3. How Would It Happen? (Military Considerations)
- Surprise Attack: The U.S. could leverage its overwhelming conventional military superiority to strike quickly, seizing key cities (Toronto, Vancouver, Ottawa) and infrastructure.
- Cyber & Electronic Warfare: Disabling Canadian communications and defense networks would be a first step.
- Economic Leverage: Since Canada relies heavily on trade with the U.S., an embargo or financial blockade could cripple resistance.
4. Canadian Defense Capabilities
- Canada’s military is small (approx. 70,000 active personnel) but well-trained. It would likely resort to asymmetric warfare (guerrilla tactics, cyber resistance) and call on NATO allies.
- Geographic vastness and harsh climates (e.g., Arctic regions) could complicate a full occupation.
5. International Reaction
- NATO’s Article 5 could be triggered, though if the U.S. were the aggressor, the alliance might fracture.
- Global condemnation, sanctions, and potential retaliation from allies (UK, EU) would follow.
- China and Russia might exploit the situation to undermine U.S. global leadership.
6. Aftermath & Feasibility
- Occupation Challenges: Holding Canada (the world’s second-largest country by area) would require a massive, unsustainable occupation force.
- Domestic U.S. Opposition: American public and political backlash would likely be severe.
- Economic Collapse: Disrupting the deeply integrated North American economy would harm both nations.
Conclusion
While technically possible given U.S. military dominance, a U.S. invasion of Canada remains politically, economically, and strategically unviable. The two countries’ shared values, mutual dependencies, and institutional ties make such a scenario virtually unthinkable in the 21st century—barring an extreme and unforeseeable geopolitical shift.
Now, Let’s dive deeper into the hypothetical scenario of a U.S. invasion of Canada, breaking it down into key aspects:
1. Military Strategy & Invasion Routes
The U.S. would likely pursue a multi-pronged blitzkrieg-style offensive, leveraging its overwhelming firepower and geographic proximity. Key invasion routes could include:
- Great Lakes & St. Lawrence Corridor – Seizing Toronto, Montreal, and Ottawa would cripple Canada’s political and economic core.
- Prairie Provinces (North Dakota/Montana into Manitoba/Saskatchewan) – Securing oil and agricultural heartlands.
- Pacific Northwest (Washington into British Columbia) – Capturing Vancouver and cutting off Pacific trade.
- New England into Quebec/Maritime Provinces – Isolating Atlantic Canada.
Challenges:
- Urban warfare in densely populated cities (Toronto, Vancouver).
- Vast rural and Arctic regions would be difficult to fully control.
- Potential Canadian sabotage of infrastructure (bridges, pipelines).
2. Canadian Defense & Resistance
Canada’s military (CAF: ~70,000 active personnel) is outmatched but could employ:
- Asymmetric warfare – Insurgency tactics, cyberattacks, and sabotage.
- Scorched-earth policies – Destroying key infrastructure (oil sands, ports) to deny U.S. gains.
- NATO & Allied Support – If NATO condemns the U.S., allies (UK, France) might supply Canada.
Wildcards:
- Indigenous communities (e.g., Cree, Inuit) could resist occupation in remote areas.
- A potential “Free Canadian Government” in exile (possibly in London) could rally international support.
3. U.S. Justifications & Propaganda
For domestic and global consumption, the U.S. might frame the invasion as:
- “Preventive Action” – Claiming Canada was harboring terrorists or hostile forces.
- “Humanitarian Intervention” – If Canada descended into civil unrest (unlikely but possible).
- “Reunification of North America” – Reviving 19th-century “Manifest Destiny” rhetoric.
Public Reaction:
- Heavy protests in both the U.S. and Canada.
- Possible draft resistance and mass desertions in the U.S. military.
4. Economic & Logistical Realities
- Trade Collapse: The U.S. would lose its largest trading partner ($1 trillion/year in goods & services).
- Energy Shock: Canada supplies ~40% of U.S. oil imports—war could trigger a fuel crisis.
- Refugee Crisis: Millions of Canadians might flee to Alaska or northern states.
5. International Fallout
- NATO Split: If the U.S. attacks a NATO ally, the alliance could dissolve.
- Sanctions & Isolation: The EU, China, and Russia might impose crippling sanctions on the U.S.
- UN Condemnation: A UN Security Council resolution (vetoed by the U.S.) would still damage U.S. legitimacy.
6. Long-Term Consequences
- Guerrilla War: A prolonged insurgency could make Canada “America’s Afghanistan.”
- Global Realignment: China/Russia could exploit the chaos to expand influence.
- U.S. Domestic Crisis: Economic collapse, mass protests, and potential political upheaval.
Final Assessment: Could It Happen?
Probability: Extremely low (<<1%) under current conditions.
Why?
- Mutual economic destruction would outweigh any gains.
- No plausible casus belli exists.
- The cultural and political backlash would be catastrophic.
But in a Dystopian Future?
If the U.S. became an authoritarian state, faced extreme resource scarcity, or Canada aligned with a U.S. enemy (e.g., China), then the calculus might change—but even then, occupation would be near-impossible.
Whaddaya Say?