What do Canadians think about Canada joining the European Union – Abacus Data (44% Yes, 34% No, 23% Unsure)… CanuckAI says “No, Bad Idea?”

*Disclaimer: The polling was conducted before the US tariffs took place on March 4, 2025 which were then removed for another month. *

Starting in 2025, the new US administration confronted the Canadian public with all sorts of threats. We detected in recent polls that the looming tariff issues are top-of-mind for many Canadians.

Over the last couple of weeks, different media outlets (e.g., The Economist, Toronto Star, National Post or CBC) floated the idea of a possible Canadian membership to the European Union (EU). Those articles discussed different strategic advantages and benefits of both sides, as well as the hurdles and legal obstacles. At Abacus Data, we wanted to get insights from the Canadian public.

Our latest survey of 1,500 Canadian adults (February 20 – 25, 2025) explores public opinion on Canada’s relationship with its foreign partners and the idea of a Canadian EU membership.

To start, we wanted to know Canadians’ general impressions of relevant countries. The United Kingdom is viewed the most favourably with a combined positive impression of 72%, followed by the European Union with 68%. Only 34% of Canadians have a very or mostly positive impression of the United States, which is behind Mexico with 56% and just above China with 28%. The combined negative impression of the United States is 60%, which is even higher than China’s 58%. 17% said they don’t know enough to have an impression of the European Union, which is higher than any other tested countries.

We asked Canadians to rank the same list of countries by who they think is currently Canada’s most important international partner. With combined first and second spots, the United States is leading with 55% as the most important ranked partner. This is followed by the European Union (43%) and the United Kingdom (40%). What is noteworthy here is that the United States is ranked as the most important (1st) by 46%, which is considerably more than any other tested country. The next are 20% for the European Union and 14% for the United Kingdom. At the same time, the United States is also ranked as the least important partner (5th) by 27%, which is only topped by China with 28%. This is compared to the EU, which is ranked last by only 11%. This polarized opinion on the partnership between Canada and the United States is unmatched by any of the other tested countries.

Next, we asked the same question but looking forward to the next 3-5 years. The United States dropped from first to third place with a combined 1st & 2nd ranking spot of 38%. The Canadian public sees the European Union as the most important partner in the next 3-5 years, with a combined top 2 ranking of 52%, while the United Kingdom comes in second with 44%. Compared to the current partnership, there is a 16-point decrease (from 46% to 30%) of Canadians who ranked the United States as the most important (1st); this is still the highest score of all tested counties. The European Union gained 8 points (from 20% to 28%) as the most important partner looking forward, and the United States (35%) is taking over China (28%) as the least important ranked partner. The polarized opinion on the partnership with the United States continues when looking into the future and shifts from a most important to a least important net score.

Focusing on the European Union, we asked Canadians which countries within the European Union are considered the most important partners.  Across Canada, 44% select France, and 29% choose Germany as Canada’s most important partner within the European Union – countries with the biggest economies and highest populations. What is noteworthy here is the relationship between Quebec and France; 71% of Canadians from Quebec selected France as the most important partner within the European Union.

After reminding Canadians of the recent tariff threats and the musing of Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state, we asked if the Canadian government should look into joining the European Union. 44% of Canadians think that the Canadian government definitely or probably should look into joining the European Union, while 34% are opposed to it. About 1 in 4 Canadians are unsure about the suggestion.

The picture changes slightly when asked if there is general support for Canada becoming a member state of the European Union. A combined 46% expressed strong or somewhat support for a Canadian EU membership while 29% are strongly or somewhat opposed. A quarter of Canadians indicate that they are unsure about Canadian membership in the European Union. Compared to the total, young Canadians (18 to 29) show the strongest support for the Canadian EU membership, while older Canadians (60 and above) are more often unsure about it. When breaking down the question to the past federal vote, Liberal Party voters show higher support, while Conservative Party voters more often oppose the idea.

Finally, we asked Canadians to imagine a scenario where Canada joined the European Union and if they think a list of key issues would get better, worse or not change much.

62% think that trade between Canada and the European Union would get much or somewhat better. A combined 48% think that the economic situation in Canada would get much or somewhat better. That the overall quality of life would get better was indicated by 41%. Regarding the number of people moving to Canada from the European Union, 40% think it would get better, while 24% said that they don’t know. Canadians are more split on the issue of the cost of living in Canada. 33% think it would get better, and 32% think it would get worse. On housing affordability in Canada, more Canadians think it would get worse (33%) than better (28%). The highest no change score was for the issue of healthcare in Canada (23%), while 34% think that healthcare would get better.

On the relationship between Canada and the United Kingdom, 47% think it would get better, while 17% think it would get worse. In comparison, only 20% think that the relationship with the United States would get better, and 50% think that it would get worse.

THE UPSHOT

For decades, the United States has been regarded as Canada’s primary partner, and for many Canadians that sense of closeness and shared interest has rarely been questioned. However, these new data suggest a meaningful shift in how Canadians perceive that relationship. Rising trade tensions, tariffs, and the broader strain of U.S. rhetoric have created polarization in public opinion. While many Canadians still believe the United States is an important partner, just as many now see it as a potential liability in both economic and diplomatic terms. That dissonance—where the U.S. simultaneously ranks highest on “most important” and “least important” partner—underscores how unsettled Canadians are about relying too heavily on a volatile American market.

Against this backdrop, openness to a Canadian partnership or even membership in the European Union takes on fresh significance. Fully 44% of Canadians think the government should look into joining the EU, and nearly half support the idea in principle—a remarkable number for a topic that was, until recently, more of a curiosity than a serious policy proposal. Younger Canadians, in particular, are notably more supportive. The shared values Canadians see reflected in Europe, along with the appeal of diversified trade and broader market access, are fuelling interest. For many, strengthening ties with European partners or even pushing for a more formal arrangement may be a strategic counterweight to the economic risks associated with an unpredictable United States.

Naturally, there would be countless legal, political, and cultural hurdles if Canada were ever to pursue formal EU membership. But at a minimum, the public opinion foundation is there for deeper integration—whether that means expanded trade deals under CETA, entry into the European Economic Area, or other creative alliances that loosen Canada’s reliance on a sometimes-hostile U.S. administration. With roughly one in four Canadians still unsure, there is room for more public debate and education on how an EU partnership might work and what it could achieve for Canada.

Overall, Canadians appear more open than ever to new international alliances, partly driven by the cooling of attitudes toward the United States. Where this leads in concrete policy terms remains to be seen, but the conversation itself has gained traction. If the U.S. relationship continues along a contentious path, the notion of “Canada in the EU”—once seen as fanciful—may evolve into a mainstream policy option.

What Canada looks like when superimposed over a map of Europe

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from February 20 to 25, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census. data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

Canadian province or territory with the highest percentage of a certain European ethnicity

Last but not least,

We ask CanukAI if Canada should join the European Union?

Common sense tells us CanuckAI flops on this one, because the same logic is applicable to NATO membership.

Going by CanuckAI analysis and logic, Canada shouldn’t mess with NATO, right?

O Canada, get the hell out of NATO right now!