Canadian real estate market is not in a bubble, Poloz says
Canada’s housing market is not in a bubble and not likely to suffer a sudden and sharp correction in prices unless there is another major global shock to the economy, Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz said Wednesday.
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The central banker, testifying before the Senate banking committee on his latest economic outlook, said he believes the most likely scenario is a soft landing where home prices stabilize, although he acknowledged that an imbalance in the market and high household debt remain key risks.
Poloz used the testimony to pointedly disagree with a couple of forecasting organizations that weighed in this week on the Canadian situation — the Fitch Rating service that judged Canada’s housing market as 21 per cent overpriced, and an OECD recommendation that he start raising interest rates in a year’s time.
“Our judgment is (the housing market) is a situation that is improving, this is not a bubble that exists here that would have to be corrected,” he said. “If there is a disturbance from outside our country that’s another analysis.”
Poloz said most of the fundamentals surrounding the housing market appear headed in the right direction. The prospects for the economy is improving, he noted, which should create more jobs.
As well, he said banks are now demanding higher credit scores from new borrowers and added that he does not believe there has been serious overbuilding in the housing market.
“It looks expensive,” he said of home prices. “But which markets are expensive? Well those markets have been expensive my whole life,”he said, noting that Toronto and Vancouver both absorb high rates of immigration.
Asked to put odds on his soft landing scenario, Poloz said he would place it in the 60-to-80 per cent probability range.
Poloz was asked about the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s advice this week that the Bank of Canada start moving off its one per cent policy rate by the end of 2014 and keep hiking until it reaches 2.25 per cent by the end of 2015.
In unusual clarity for a central banker, Poloz said he respectfully disagreed. In his analysis, he said, there remains plenty of slack in the Canadian economy and inflation, at 1.1 per cent, is well south of the central bank’s two per cent target.
“Those things together give us the judgments we reach and obviously they differ in a material way from what the OECD is saying … and it’s our job to reach that final conclusion,” he told the senators.
Last month, Poloz surprised markets by dropping the central bank’s official tightening bias and moved to a more neutral stance, which signals that the bank is as likely to cut as to raise interest rates in the future.
Analysts interpreted the move as the bank telling markets it won’t likely start raising borrowing costs until the first or second quarter of 2015. Markets reacted to that assessment by selling off the loonie.
Read more:http://www.vancouversun.com/
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Step Into This Stylish & Sassy Semi With 3 Bedrooms & 2 Baths In Bloor West Village, Neutral Colours Throughout, Beautiful Hardwood Floors, Upgraded …
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Nice, Bright & Sunny Best Describes This 3+2 Bdrm & 3 Full Baths Bungalow In Prime Etobicoke Neighborhood In Bloordale Gardens.This Gem Features …
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** Situated On A Premium 50 Ft Lot In High Demand Neighbourhood,Brick Detached 3+2 Bedroom Bungalow,Open Concept Living And Dining Rm,Updated …
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W2788598 – M8W – 74 TWENTY-NINTH ST Toronto, Ontario – $ 439,000
Beautiful Bungalow, Recently Renovated. New Kitchen, Laminate Floor And Ceramic …
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This 60 Footer Oversized Bungalow Sits Quietly In The Prestigious York University Height Neighbourhood Among Exciting New Developments, Not To Mention …
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Fabulous Opportunity In Demand Kingsway/Thompson/Brentwood Area. Safe Cul-De-Sac Yet Steps To Bloor Subway, Kingsway Shops, Good Schools & Churches. …
W2788693 – M3J – 406 COOK RD Toronto, Ontario – $ 697,900
One Of The Best Home In The Area. Must See You Wont Be Disappointed . Largest Semi-Mode; (Spencer “”C””) 4 Finished …
W2788695 – M9W – 398 ALBION RD Toronto, Ontario – $ 479,900
Detached Home On Main Albion Road With 3 Independent Unit Including Separate Entrance Basement Apartment With One Bedroom. Live And Rent Out 2 …
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